General Information
The Pop-AUT database was developed for the DISCC-AT project, which is dedicated at informing decision makers in Austria about group-specific social
vulnerabilities associated with key climate risks as well as the within-country distributional effects of climate
change impacts and adaptation on a national scale.
To achieve this, the project relies on subnational population projections consistent with the Shared Socio-Economic
Pathways (SSPs). Therefore, in the Pop-AUT database the most recent version of the nationwide SSP population projections are downscaled,
providing a detailed perspective at the subnational level in Austria.
Recognizing the relevance of this information for a wider audience, the data has been made publicly accessible through this interactive dashboard. Users are invited to explore how the Austrian population is
projected to evolve under different SSP scenarios until the end of this century. For inquiries or further
information, please feel free to contact Alexander Marbler.
Methodology
The downscaling process of the nationwide Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) population projections is a four-step
procedure developed to obtain subnational demographic projections for Austria. In the first step, population potential
surfaces for Austria are derived. These indicate the attractiveness of a location in terms of habitability and are
obtained using machine learning techniques, specifically random forest models, along with geospatial information such
as land use, roads, elevation, distance to cities, and elevation (see, e.g., Wang et al. (2023)).
The population potential surfaces play a crucial role in distributing the Austrian population effectively across the country.
Calculations are based on the 1x1 km spatial resolution database provided by Wang et al. (2023), covering all SSPs in 5-year
intervals from 2020 to 2100.
Moving to the second step, the updated nationwide SSP population projections for Austria (IIASA-WiC POP 2023) are distributed to all
1x1 km grid cells within the country. This distribution is guided by the previously computed grid cell-level population
potential surfaces, ensuring a more granular representation of demographic trends.
The base year for all scenarios is 2015, obtained by downscaling the UN World Population Prospects 2015 count for Austria using the WorldPop (2015) 1×1 km population count raster.
In the third step, the 1x1 km population projections are temporally interpolated to obtain yearly projections for all SSP
scenarios spanning the period from 2020 to 2100.
The final step involves the spatial aggregation of the gridded SSP-consistent population projections to the administrative
levels of provinces (Bundesländer), districts (Bezirke), and municipalities (Gemeinden).
Data Inputs
Updated nationwide SSP population projections: IIASA-WiC POP (2023)
Version
This is version 1.0, built upon the Review-Phase 2 version of the updated nationwide SSP population projections (IIASA-WiC POP 2023). Once these projections are revised, this dataset will be accordingly updated.
How to Cite
If you use content from this dashbord, please cite as follows:
Marbler, A. (2024). Pop-AUT: Subnational SSP Population Projections for Austria (Version 1.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10477870
Pop-AUT: Subnational SSP Population Projections for Austria